Temporal Trends in Pollination Deficits and Its Potential Impacts on Chinese Agriculture
Shibonage K Mashilingi, Hong Zhang, Wenfeng Chen, Bernard E Vaissière, Lucas A Garibaldi, Jiandong An
近日，中国农业科学院蜜蜂研究所和福州大学、法国农科院、阿根廷里奥内格罗国立大学合作，发现过去60年中国农业对传粉昆虫的依赖度越来越高，2010年昆虫传粉产生的经济价值占中国农业总产值的19.1%，约为全球平均水平的2倍；为了满足虫媒作物授粉需求，中国应进一步加强传粉昆虫资源保护与开发利用力度。该成果在线发表在《经济昆虫杂志》上。
中国农业科学院蜜蜂研究所研究员安建东介绍，传粉昆虫在陆地生态系统中发挥着重要的作用，尤其在农业生产方面贡献巨大，全球85%的农作物种类需要昆虫传粉，传粉昆虫是保障人类食物供给安全的功臣。但是近几十年来，受栖息地破坏、农药使用、气候变化等诸多因素的影响，全球多个地区传粉昆虫多样性不断下降，给人类食物供给安全造成了巨大挑战。
传粉昆虫的减少引起了全球生物学家的高度关注，英、美、法等发达国家相继颁布了保护传粉昆虫的国家战略发展规划。中国是全球农业第一大国，也是虫媒作物种植比例最高的国家之一，为了评估传粉昆虫对中国农业的贡献，并制定相应的保护措施，课题组分析了1961-2018年中国84种主要农作物的种植变化情况和昆虫传粉所产生的经济价值。
结果表明，过去60年中国虫媒作物种植面积和产量增长更多，中国农业对传粉昆虫的依赖度越来越高；在农作物价格记录完整的1991-2010年间，昆虫传粉产生的经济价值占比逐年上升，2010年中国农业昆虫传粉产生的经济价值为1061亿美元（2010年汇率年平均中间价6.7695，折合人民币7182亿元），占中国84种农作物总产值的19.1%（全球平均水平为9.5%）；水果、蔬菜和油料是我国昆虫传粉贡献最大的3大类作物；西瓜、苹果、棉花、芒果、梨、茄子、甜瓜、桃、大豆和南瓜是我国昆虫传粉经济价值最大的10种作物；预测2020年中国农业昆虫传粉产生的经济价值将超过2万亿人民币，中国农业对传粉昆虫的需求正处于历史最高水平，而且将来仍将持续增长；如果野生传粉昆虫全部消失，中国需要饲养2680~15200万群蜜蜂（至少为目前养蜂数量的3倍以上）才能满足农作物授粉需要。
该研究得到了中国农科院科技创新工程和科技基础资源调查专项等项目的资助。
来源：中国科学报 张晴丹
Abstract
Worldwide, there is increasing evidence that shows a decline in pollinators, limiting crop pollination and production. However, it is unclear to what extent Chinese agriculture could be impacted by pollinator deficits. Data for 84 major crops in China between 1961 and 2018 were analyzed for the temporal trends in crop area and production, agricultural economic contribution of pollination, crop yield deficits, and honey bee pollination demand. We found a rapid increase in agricultural dependence on insect pollinators: both the cultivated area and total production of pollinator-dependent crops increased faster than those of pollinator-independent crops during 1961–2018. The total economic value of pollination amounted to US$ 106.08 billion in 2010, representing 19.12% of the total production value of Chinese agriculture, approximately twice the 9.5% value estimated for global agriculture. Crops with higher pollinator dependence showed greater mean growth in cultivated area than those with lower dependence, but lower mean growth of crop production and yield. Crop yield growth was also more unstable with increasing pollinator dependence. The minimum pollination demand for honey bee colonies was about three times the stock of honey bee colonies available in 2018. Furthermore, we found a decline in crop yield deficit with the increase in honey bee colony pollination service capacity. We considered that the shortage of pollinators resulted in the yield deficits for pollinator-dependent crops. Future increase in the area of pollinator-dependent crops will increase the need for more pollinators, suggesting the importance of implementing measures to protect pollinators to ensure a better-secured future for agricultural production in China.
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