A global-scale expert assessment of drivers and risks associated with pollinator decline
Lynn V. Dicks, Tom D. Breeze, Hien T. Ngo, Deepa Senapathi, Jiandong An, Marcelo A. Aizen, Parthiba Basu, Damayanti Buchori, Leonardo Galetto, Lucas A. Garibaldi, Barbara Gemmill-Herren, Brad G. Howlett, Vera L. Imperatriz-Fonseca, Steven D. Johnson, Anikó Kovács-Hostyánszki, Yong Jung Kwon, H. Michael G. Lattorff, Thingreipi Lungharwo, Colleen L. Seymour, Adam J. Vanbergen & Simon G. Potts
近日，剑桥大学、雷丁大学和中国农业科学院蜜蜂研究所（以下简称蜜蜂所）等单位合作，发现土地覆被变化、土地管理和农药使用是导致全球传粉昆虫多样性下降的主要驱动因素，而且发现传粉昆虫下降对南半球发展中国家人民福祉的威胁更大，尤其是拉丁美洲。该结果为不同地区的政府决策部门、研究人员和环保志愿者保护传粉昆虫提供了重要的依据。相关成果8月16日在线发表在《自然生态与进化》上。
据悉，该研究基于2016年联合国“生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学政策平台（IPBES）”发表的导致传粉昆虫下降的8种潜在因素（传粉者管理、病虫害、农药使用、土地管理、土地覆被变化、入侵物种、转基因植物和气候变化）和传粉昆虫下降对人类生活密切相关的10个方面的影响，在IPBES和“生物多样性公约（CBD）”的后续资助下，来自全球不同地区的20位传粉专家合作，利用德尔菲评估模型，首次评估了全球及非洲、亚太、澳洲、欧洲、北美和拉丁美洲6个地区导致传粉昆虫下降的主要驱动因素及对人民福祉的影响。
论文合作者、蜜蜂所研究员安建东介绍，传粉昆虫的减少引起了全球生物学家们的高度关注。因为传粉昆虫具有十分重要的生态价值，是众多植物繁衍的媒人，全球有35.2万种开花植物，其中90%依赖昆虫传粉产生种子；传粉昆虫也是生物多样性保护的重要功臣，植物的花蜜、花粉、种子、果实、叶子、树枝等是很多动物和真菌的食物。同时，传粉昆虫对农业生产贡献十分巨大，据估计昆虫传粉每年可为全球农业增加数万亿元的经济效益。蜜蜂所最近研究表明，中国农业昆虫传粉产生的经济价值占农业总产值的19.1%，中国农业对传粉昆虫的需求正处于历史最高水平，而且将来仍将持续增长。但是，越来越多的研究结果表明，近几十年来，全球多个地区传粉昆虫多样性急剧下降，对人类食物供给安全造成了巨大挑战。探索传粉昆虫下降的驱动因素及其对人类福祉的影响，对于制定保护传粉昆虫的政策和行动方案具有重要的意义。
导致全球及不同地区传粉昆虫多样性下降的驱动因素 安建东供图
来源：中国科学报 张晴丹
Abstract
Pollinator decline has attracted global attention and substantial efforts are underway to respond through national pollinator strategies and action plans. These policy responses require clarity on what is driving pollinator decline and what risks it generates for society in different parts of the world. Using a formal expert elicitation process, we evaluated the relative regional and global importance of eight drivers of pollinator decline and ten consequent risks to human well-being. Our results indicate that global policy responses should focus on reducing pressure from changes in land cover and configuration, land management and pesticides, as these were considered very important drivers in most regions. We quantify how the importance of drivers and risks from pollinator decline, differ among regions. For example, losing access to managed pollinators was considered a serious risk only for people in North America, whereas yield instability in pollinator-dependent crops was classed as a serious or high risk in four regions but only a moderate risk in Europe and North America. Overall, perceived risks were substantially higher in the Global South. Despite extensive research on pollinator decline, our analysis reveals considerable scientific uncertainty about what this means for human society.
